Cleveland Guardians at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians handed the San Francisco Giants a 3-1 defeat at Oracle Park on September 12, 2023, overcoming a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate that put the home team's win probability at 58 percent. Cleveland held the Giants to a single run despite San Francisco out-hitting the visitors six to four, while the Giants' lone error contributed to a night the home side would prefer to forget.

The pivotal sequence came in the sixth inning, when Tyler Freeman delivered a single off Ryan Walker that swung win probability in Cleveland's favor by 21.3 percent, the single largest swing of the game. That hit was part of a two-run sixth that effectively turned the contest. The Giants had shown brief life in the bottom of the fifth, when Blake Sabol connected on a solo home run off Cal Quantrill to pull San Francisco within a run, a swing worth 13.4 percent in home win probability. But any momentum San Francisco might have built from that blast evaporated in the very next inning when Joc Pederson grounded into a double play off Quantrill, a sequence that cost the Giants 11.8 percent in win probability and extinguished their most threatening rally.

Freeman finished as the top position player by WPA at plus-23.3 percent with an RE24 of plus-0.9, while Brandon Crawford's flyout to end the ninth accounted for a 14.4 percent swing as Emmanuel Clase closed the door. On the mound, Cal Quantrill was the story, posting a game-high plus-26.2 percent WPA despite surrendering Sabol's home run, with Trevor Stephan adding plus-13.3 percent in support. The DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at zero percent for the Giants, a complete reversal from where things stood at first pitch.