Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies defeated the Chicago Cubs 6-4 on September 12, 2023, at Coors Field, overcoming a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate of just 37 percent in favor of the home side. The Cubs built a 2-0 lead through two innings and extended it to 4-0 heading into the bottom of the fourth, but Colorado's offense erupted for four runs in that frame and never surrendered the lead again. The decisive stretch came in the sixth inning, where momentum shifted sharply in both directions. Seiya Suzuki hit a home run off Jake Bird in the top half, a swing that added 21.8 percent to Chicago's win probability and briefly made it a one-run game. But Kris Bryant answered immediately in the bottom half with a home run off Daniel Palencia, a plus-14.7 percent WPA play that pushed Colorado back ahead by two. A Brenton Doyle single off Palencia in the seventh, worth 11.6 percent in win probability, helped seal the outcome.

On the individual side, Suzuki finished as the game's top batter for Chicago with a cumulative WPA of plus-22.6 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.3, while Doyle led all Colorado position players at plus-22.2 percent WPA and plus-1.9 RE24 despite his team's big fourth inning doing much of the structural damage. Bryant added plus-15.5 percent WPA and plus-1.0 RE24. On the mound, Colorado's bullpen did the heavy lifting to preserve the victory, with Chris Flexen contributing plus-10.0 percent WPA, Nick Mears adding plus-8.1 percent, and Justin Lawrence contributing plus-6.3 percent. The DiamondIQ model's estimate reached 100 percent by game's end, reflecting how thoroughly Colorado controlled the final three innings after absorbing Suzuki's sixth-inning blow.