Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
The Story
The Atlanta Braves edged the Philadelphia Phillies 7-6 in ten innings on September 12, 2023, at Citizens Bank Park, completing a comeback that erased what had looked like a near-certain Phillies victory. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Philadelphia holding a 43 percent win probability before first pitch, and that figure climbed sharply through eight innings before a dramatic ninth inning reset the game entirely. With Atlanta leading by as many as six runs through five innings before Philadelphia clawed back, the contest turned on a single swing in the bottom of the ninth when Trea Turner launched a home run off Raisel Iglesias, a blow that swung win probability by 44.1 percentage points and sent the game to extra innings. It was the single most impactful play of the night by the DiamondIQ model's estimate and ultimately the one that defined the contest.
The tenth inning belonged to Atlanta's relief corps, specifically Brad Hand, who retired the Phillies in order to strand the automatic runner and seal the win. Bryson Stott's groundout to close the tenth cost Philadelphia 23.7 percentage points of win probability, and Johan Rojas's pop out contributed another 19.0-point swing in Atlanta's favor, underscoring how completely Hand shut the door once Turner had forced extras. Stott had done significant damage earlier, hitting a home run off Joe Jiménez in the eighth that added 23.9 points of win probability and was central to Philadelphia's late rally, which made his groundout to end the game a particularly sharp reversal.
Turner and Stott finished as the two most impactful players in the game by the DiamondIQ model's metrics, posting WPA figures of plus-47.8 and plus-45.4 respectively, though they ended up on opposite sides of the result. Turner's RE24 of plus-1.7 and Stott's plus-1.8 reflected how genuinely productive both were in run-creation terms, making this a game decided more by sequencing and leverage than by a talent gap between the two clubs. On the mound, A.J. Minter led all pitchers with a plus-17.1 percent WPA contribution for Atlanta, and Max Fried added plus-3.5, while the model's estimate for a Philadelphia win fell from that 43 percent opening figure all the way to zero percent by the final out.