Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Chicago Cubs defeated the Colorado Rockies 5-4 at Coors Field on September 11, 2023, completing the win on a dramatic ninth-inning rally after the Rockies had appeared to seize control. The DiamondIQ model's estimate entered the day giving Colorado only a 36 percent chance of winning at home, and by the final out that figure had dropped to zero. Colorado's best moment came in the bottom of the seventh, when Brenton Doyle delivered a single off Jose Cuas that swung win probability by 32.7 percentage points in the Rockies' favor, giving Colorado a lead that seemed to put the Cubs in a difficult position heading into the late innings. Chicago had managed single runs in the third, fifth, and sixth to build a 3-1 edge before that seventh-inning frame unraveled, with Colorado scoring three times to move in front 4-3.
The Cubs reclaimed the lead in the ninth against Tyler Kinley in the most consequential sequence of the game. Dansby Swanson opened the inning with a double that added 20.4 percentage points of win probability, and then Yan Gomes followed with a single that swung the needle an additional 45.0 points, the single largest play of the night and the decisive blow as Chicago pushed across two runs to go ahead 5-4. Gomes finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a combined WPA of plus-53.5 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.0. Doyle was the Rockies' most impactful bat at plus-47.6 percent WPA despite his strikeout to end the bottom of the ninth registering as an 18.8-point swing back toward Chicago. Cody Bellinger's eighth-inning double-play groundout had briefly threatened Chicago's chances, costing the Cubs 16.4 points of win probability off the board.
On the pitching side, Jordan Wicks led Chicago's staff with a WPA of plus-14.9, followed by Justin Lawrence at plus-10.8 and Drew Smyly at plus-6.7. Colorado's lineup finished with seven hits against Chicago's twelve, and both teams played clean defense with no errors recorded. The Cubs left Colorado having converted a game that the DiamondIQ model suggested was a significant underdog situation at the outset into a road victory built almost entirely on ninth-inning execution.