MLB Recap · September 10, 2023

Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

CWS2
Final
DET3

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CWS000101000252
DET00300000-391

The Story

The Detroit Tigers defeated the Chicago White Sox 3-2 on September 10, 2023, at Comerica Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 62% pre-game home win probability to a final 100% certainty in Detroit's favor. The Tigers built their entire margin in the third inning, scoring all three of their runs in that frame, and never relinquished the lead despite Chicago's attempts to chip away with single runs in the fourth and sixth innings.

The defining sequence of the game came in the bottom of the third, when Spencer Torkelson delivered a double off Jesse Scholtens that shifted win probability by plus 15.3 percentage points, serving as the catalyst for Detroit's three-run burst. Torkelson finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 18.7 and posted a RE24 of plus 2.1, reflecting the tangible run-value impact of his contributions. Eloy Jiménez was Chicago's most consequential offensive player, generating a combined plus 20.1 percentage points of win-probability movement across two plate appearances — a double off Sawyer Gipson-Long in the fourth and a walk off Will Vest in the sixth — though his efforts ultimately fell short. The White Sox's best rally attempt in the sixth collapsed when Yasmani Grandal grounded into a double play off Will Vest, a swing of minus 21.6 percentage points that effectively extinguished any realistic path to a comeback.

On the mound, Detroit's bullpen secured the win with strong late-inning work, led by Alex Lange at plus 15.2 WPA, Miguel Díaz at plus 10.8, and Tyler Holton at plus 8.5. Javier Báez's strikeout against Bryan Shaw in the eighth added another plus 7.8 percentage points to Detroit's column, reflecting how thoroughly the Tigers controlled the final frames. Chicago finished with two errors against Detroit's one, and despite collecting five hits, the White Sox could not overcome the structural deficit created in that decisive third inning.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CWS bats firstFinalDET win %CWS win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 61.7% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Yasmani Grandal Grounded Into DP
Top 6th · off Will Vest
-21.6%
Bot 3rd · off Jesse Scholtens
+15.3%
Eloy Jiménez Walk
Top 6th · off Will Vest
+11.9%
Eloy Jiménez Double
Top 4th · off Sawyer Gipson-Long
+8.2%
Javier Báez Strikeout
Bot 8th · off Bryan Shaw
+7.8%

Top Batters by WPA

Spencer Torkelson+18.7%+2.1 RE24
Eloy Jiménez+13.8%+1.4 RE24
Andre Lipcius+2.8%+0.3 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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