Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 5-2 on September 10, 2023, at Truist Park, completing a game that was scoreless through five innings before both offenses finally broke through. The DiamondIQ model entered the night favoring Atlanta at 72% and finished at 100% as the Braves pulled away with a four-run seventh inning that effectively ended the contest.

Pittsburgh showed life first, pushing two runs across in the top of the sixth on back-to-back doubles from Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski off Allan Winans, with Reynolds' hit registering a win-probability swing of plus-15.5% and Suwinski's adding another plus-10.6% for the Pirates. Atlanta answered with a run in the bottom half to keep it close, but the decisive damage came in the seventh. Ronald Acuña Jr. delivered the most impactful single swing of the night, a base hit off Colin Selby that shifted win probability by plus-32.3%, and Matt Olson followed with a single off Thomas Hatch worth plus-17.3%, capping a four-run inning that gave Atlanta a lead it would never relinquish. Joshua Palacios had contributed a triple off Winans in the top of the seventh worth plus-11.6%, but it proved inconsequential against the Braves' response.

By the model's final accounting, Acuña finished as the game's most valuable offensive contributor at plus-36.5% WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.8, while Olson led all players with a RE24 of plus-2.6 to go along with his plus-30.9% WPA. On the pitching side, Luis Ortiz paced Pittsburgh's staff with a plus-30.6% WPA, though it was ultimately not enough to overcome the Braves' seventh-inning surge. Brad Hand added plus-13.5% WPA in relief for Atlanta to help close the door on any Pittsburgh comeback.