New York Mets at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
The Story
The New York Mets blanked the Minnesota Twins 2-0 on September 10, 2023, at Target Field, delivering all their offense in a ninth-inning burst that erased what had been a scoreless, tension-filled game. The DiamondIQ model opened with Minnesota as a 61% favorite and closed at 0%, a complete reversal driven almost entirely by two swings in the final frame. DJ Stewart's two-out double off Griffin Jax shifted win probability by 34.2 percentage points, the single largest swing of the game, and Francisco Lindor followed with a double of his own that added another 17.5 percentage points, plating both runs and sealing the margin. Pete Alonso's strikeout against Jax in the same inning was the lone significant drag on the Mets' rally, costing 11.2 points of win probability before Stewart and Lindor erased the damage.
The pitching staff was equally decisive. Pablo López led all pitchers with a 42.9% WPA contribution, controlling the Twins lineup throughout his outing and keeping the game scoreless long enough for the late offense to matter. Tylor Megill added 27.2% WPA, and a key moment in his favor came in the fifth inning when Alex Kirilloff grounded into a double play, a swing of negative 11.0% win probability for Minnesota that extinguished a potential threat. Brooks Raley contributed another 10.9% WPA in relief, and though Carlos Correa's double off Adam Ottavino in the ninth added 10.9 percentage points of hope for the Twins, the deficit proved insurmountable.
By final WPA, Stewart led all position players at plus 27.4% with a RE24 of plus 0.7, while Lindor finished at plus 16.4% and a RE24 of plus 0.3. Willi Castro posted a plus 12.7% WPA despite a slightly negative RE24 of minus 0.2, reflecting his contribution within the game's broader leverage context. The Mets finished with four hits, the same total as Minnesota, but concentrated theirs at the moment it mattered most, converting a late-game window against a Twins bullpen that could not hold the lead the model had assigned them before first pitch.