St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | - | 7 | 10 | 1 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds handled the St. Louis Cardinals decisively on September 10, 2023, at Great American Ball Park, winning 7-1 and pushing the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cincinnati victory from a pre-game 61 percent all the way to 100 percent by the final out. St. Louis managed just one run on one hit, compounding their struggles with an error, while Cincinnati collected ten hits and controlled the game from the third inning onward.
The decisive blows came early and were concentrated against Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas. In the bottom of the third, Jonathan India launched a home run off Mikolas that shifted win probability by plus-10.6 percent, and Will Benson followed with another home run in the same inning adding another plus-9.9 percent swing, effectively removing any realistic path back for St. Louis. Cincinnati extended its lead in the sixth when TJ Friedl hit a triple off Mikolas for plus-8.2 percent and Nick Martini followed with a triple of his own, the single most impactful play of the game at plus-10.8 percent. Andrew Knizner's single off Hunter Greene in the top of the fourth, worth plus-9.5 percent, represented the Cardinals' lone meaningful threat, though it produced only their sole run of the contest.
Hunter Greene was the standout performer on the mound, posting a plus-13.9 percent WPA to lead all pitchers, limiting St. Louis to that one run and holding the Cardinals' anemic offense largely in check. India led all batters at plus-13.1 percent WPA with a plus-1.1 RE24, while Benson added plus-12.5 percent WPA and a plus-1.0 RE24, the two home runs in the third inning proving to be the backbreaking sequence that defined the outcome.