MLB Recap · September 10, 2023

Milwaukee Brewers at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

MIL3
Final
NYY4

Line Score

Team12345678910111213RHE
MIL0000000000120360
NYY0000000000121430

The Story

The New York Yankees defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 4-3 in 13 innings on September 10, 2023, at Yankee Stadium in a marathon affair that saw neither team score through the first ten innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the Yankees a 48 percent home win probability, a figure that fluctuated wildly across the extra frames before settling at 100 percent by the final out. The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the 12th, when Giancarlo Stanton deposited a home run off Andrew Chafin to swing win probability by 55.0 percentage points, the single largest play of the night. Milwaukee had briefly appeared to seize control in the top of that same inning, as Joey Wiemer's double off Nick Ramirez added 31.3 percentage points in win probability for the Brewers and put them ahead, but New York answered immediately.

The Yankees ultimately won it in the bottom of the 13th when Kyle Higashioka laced a walk-off double off Hoby Milner, a hit worth 41.4 percentage points of win probability. Higashioka finished the night as one of New York's three standout performers by WPA, posting a plus-32.9 percent figure with a plus-0.7 RE24. Stanton led all batters with a plus-60.5 percent WPA and a plus-2.3 RE24, and Everson Pereira contributed plus-33.1 percent WPA despite just a plus-0.1 RE24, with his groundout in the bottom of the 11th generating a 23.7 percentage point swing off Joel Payamps as New York knotted the game.

On the pitching side, Corbin Burnes led all pitchers with a plus-47.2 percent WPA despite pitching for the losing team, a reflection of how dominant he was through the scoreless innings he worked. Gerrit Cole contributed plus-38.7 percent WPA for New York, and Clay Holmes added plus-13.5 percent. The final line told a compact story: Milwaukee managed six hits against three for New York, yet the Yankees converted their opportunities at the moments that mattered most, outscoring the Brewers 2-1 across the final two innings to complete the comeback.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025MIL bats firstFinalNYY win %MIL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 48% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Giancarlo Stanton Home Run
Bot 12th · off Andrew Chafin
+55.0%
Kyle Higashioka Double
Bot 13th · off Hoby Milner
+41.4%
Joey Wiemer Double
Top 12th · off Nick Ramirez
+31.3%
Oswaldo Cabrera Double
Bot 11th · off Joel Payamps
+26.9%
Everson Pereira Groundout
Bot 11th · off Joel Payamps
+23.7%

Top Batters by WPA

Giancarlo Stanton+60.5%+2.3 RE24
Everson Pereira+33.1%+0.1 RE24
Kyle Higashioka+32.9%+0.7 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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