St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals held off the Cincinnati Reds 4-3 at Great American Ball Park on September 9, 2023, handing the home side a loss despite entering with a 60 percent pre-game win probability from the DiamondIQ model. The Cardinals jumped ahead with a run in the first, absorbed a three-run Reds second inning, and then retook the lead with two runs in the third before adding one more in the fourth. From the fifth inning on, neither team scored, leaving the outcome to hinge on a tense ninth.

The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the ninth with Ryan Helsley on the mound. Christian Encarnacion-Strand drew a walk that shifted the win-probability needle 12.3 points in Cincinnati's favor, keeping a comeback alive. Tyler Stephenson then hit into a double play, a single play that swung win probability 27.2 points back toward St. Louis. Will Benson followed with a strikeout to end the game, a plate appearance the DiamondIQ model valued at a 31.6-point swing in win probability, and the most consequential moment of the contest. The Cardinals' biggest offensive blow had come earlier, when Willson Contreras connected on a home run off Carson Spiers in the third inning, an 18.8-point swing that helped St. Louis regain the lead for good.

Contreras finished as one of the Cardinals' standout performers with a 13.1 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.4, reflecting his direct run-environment impact alongside his clutch output. Lars Nootbaar added 9.4 percent WPA for St. Louis. On the pitching side, Giovanny Gallegos led all pitchers with a 23.3 percent WPA contribution, aided in part by Nick Martini's eighth-inning lineout that registered as a 12.9-point swing. Ian Gibaut and Lucas Sims each added meaningful relief contributions at 14.0 and 12.9 percent WPA, respectively, helping the Cardinals strand the Reds scoreless across the final seven innings.