Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves routed the Pittsburgh Pirates 8-2 at Truist Park on September 8, 2023, a result that the DiamondIQ model's estimate anticipated, with Atlanta entering the game at a 72% home win probability and finishing at 100%. The Braves wasted little time turning probability into certainty, scoring four runs in the third inning and three more in the fourth to build an insurmountable 7-0 lead through five frames. Pittsburgh managed two runs in the sixth but never seriously threatened, finishing with six hits and an error against an Atlanta club that posted twelve hits on a clean defensive night.

The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the third, where Braves hitters strung together damage against starter Mitch Keller. Travis d'Arnaud's single delivered the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 10.9 percentage points, followed by Eddie Rosario's single at plus 9.3 points and Marcell Ozuna's single at plus 6.8 points, all at Keller's expense. That cluster of hits effectively buried Pittsburgh's chances before the game reached its midpoint. Keller had shown early promise, retiring Atlanta in order through two innings and drawing a groundout from Nicky Lopez in the second that shifted win probability 7.3 points in Pittsburgh's favor, but the third inning unraveled quickly.

Among individual performers, d'Arnaud led all batters with a WPA of plus 9.2 and an RE24 of plus 0.7, while Ronald Acuna Jr. contributed plus 8.6 WPA and a game-high plus 3.0 RE24, and Rosario finished at plus 7.0 WPA with a plus 2.3 RE24. On the mound, Bryce Elder paced Atlanta's pitching staff with a plus 3.3 WPA, holding Pittsburgh largely in check across his outing and allowing the Braves bullpen a comfortable finish in the final frames.