New York Mets at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins defeated the New York Mets 5-2 on September 8, 2023, at Target Field, pushing the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win from a pre-game 61 percent all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The game was decided in two critical innings, with the fourth and seventh serving as the turning points in opposite directions before Minnesota ultimately seized control.

The pivotal exchange came in the fourth inning. Pete Alonso opened the scoring with a double off Dallas Keuchel that shifted win probability by plus 11.8 percent in New York's favor, giving the Mets a brief foothold in the game. Minnesota answered immediately in the bottom half when Carlos Correa connected on a home run off Kodai Senga, a swing worth plus 11.9 percent in win probability that neutralized New York's momentum and restored the Twins' edge. That back-and-forth left the game tightly contested heading into the middle frames, but the Twins broke it open decisively in the seventh. Royce Lewis delivered a double off Sean Reid-Foley worth plus 11.2 percent, and Max Kepler followed with a single off Grant Hartwig adding another plus 8.9 percent swing. A strikeout of Edouard Julien by Reid-Foley also registered as an plus 8.8 percent swing, underscoring how loaded that inning was with leverage.

Among individual performers, Alonso led all batters with a plus 14.9 percent WPA and plus 1.2 RE24 despite being on the losing side, while Correa matched that RE24 figure at plus 1.2 with a plus 9.0 percent WPA contribution. Julien finished at plus 11.1 percent WPA for Minnesota. On the mound, Kodai Senga led all pitchers at plus 13.7 percent WPA despite the loss, with Caleb Thielbar and Emilio Pagán adding plus 8.3 and plus 7.1 percent respectively in support of the Twins' bullpen effort.