MLB Recap · September 8, 2023

Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

SEA4
Final
TB7

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
SEA021010000470
TB20000041-780

The Story

The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Seattle Mariners 7-4 on September 8, 2023, at Tropicana Field, completing a decisive comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 59% pre-game home win probability all the way to 100% by the final out. Seattle had built a modest lead through the middle innings on the strength of solo home runs from Julio Rodríguez in the third and Cal Raleigh in the fifth, both off Rays starter Taj Bradley, and the Mariners carried that cushion into the seventh inning.

The seventh inning was where the game turned completely and irreversibly. With George Kirby on the mound for Seattle, Jose Siri opened the damage with a double that shifted win probability 7.1 points in Tampa Bay's favor. Kirby was then replaced by Isaiah Campbell, and Harold Ramírez punished the change by launching a home run that swung win probability a staggering 30.0 percentage points, the single largest play of the game. René Pinto followed with another home run, this one off Kirby and worth 26.6 percentage points, completing a four-run burst in the frame that turned a Seattle lead into a Tampa Bay advantage the Rays would not relinquish. The Rays added another run in the eighth to reach the final margin of seven.

Ramírez was the clear standout performer, finishing with a game-high WPA of plus 25.4 and an RE24 of plus 1.9, while Pinto contributed plus 21.3 WPA and plus 0.8 RE24. Out of the bullpen, Shawn Armstrong was Tampa Bay's most effective arm, posting plus 8.1 WPA, followed by Chris Devenski at plus 4.3. Cal Raleigh's fifth-inning home run gave him a top-three batting WPA mark for Seattle at plus 6.7, but the Mariners' early production proved insufficient against the Rays' decisive seventh-inning outburst.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025SEA bats firstFinalTB win %SEA win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 58.6% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Harold Ramírez Home Run
Bot 7th · off Isaiah Campbell
+30.0%
René Pinto Home Run
Bot 7th · off George Kirby
+26.6%
Cal Raleigh Home Run
Top 5th · off Taj Bradley
+12.2%
Julio Rodríguez Home Run
Top 3rd · off Taj Bradley
+10.5%
Jose Siri Double
Bot 7th · off George Kirby
+7.1%

Top Batters by WPA

Harold Ramírez+25.4%+1.9 RE24
René Pinto+21.3%+0.8 RE24
Cal Raleigh+6.7%+0.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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