St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals handed the Cincinnati Reds a 9-4 defeat at Great American Ball Park on September 8, 2023, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate had favored the Reds to avoid, assigning Cincinnati a 61 percent pre-game win probability that collapsed to zero by the final out. The Cardinals struck early and often, putting up three runs in the first inning and adding three more in the third to seize control, while Cincinnati's error on the day compounded the damage from a pitching staff that could not contain St. Louis's lineup across nine innings.

The game's decisive swing came in the bottom of the second, when Harrison Bader grounded into a forceout off Drew Rom, a play that shifted win probability 15.6 percent against the Reds and extinguished a Cincinnati threat before it could materialize. On the offensive side, Luken Baker's double off Andrew Abbott in the top of the third was the single most impactful hit of the night, adding 14.1 percent to St. Louis's win probability, and his groundout in the top of the first had already contributed 8.4 percent earlier in the game. Tyler Stephenson's strikeout against Matthew Liberatore in the bottom of the sixth further deflated Cincinnati's chances by 12.1 percent, compounding the Reds' inability to generate consistent offense after their three-run third inning response.

Baker finished as the night's top performer by WPA at plus-20.6 percent, pairing it with a plus-2.0 RE24 to anchor the Cardinals' offensive contribution. Hunter Renfroe was equally impactful, posting plus-15.4 percent WPA and a team-leading plus-2.1 RE24, while Lars Nootbaar added plus-7.6 percent WPA in support. On the mound, Drew Rom led St. Louis pitchers with plus-12.3 percent WPA, and Matthew Liberatore contributed plus-10.4 percent, with Buck Farmer closing out at plus-6.2 percent as the Cardinals finished with a clean nine-error-free innings in the field against a Reds team that simply could not recover from an early deficit.