St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 14 | 0 |
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 1 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals handed the Atlanta Braves an 11-6 defeat at Truist Park on September 6, 2023, a result that stood in sharp contrast to the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 74 percent home win probability for Atlanta. St. Louis struck early and decisively, plating four runs in the first inning and two more in the third to build a commanding cushion before Atlanta could mount a meaningful response. The Cardinals added three insurance runs in the eighth to put the game firmly out of reach, finishing with 14 hits and no errors against Atlanta's one.
The game's most consequential sequence unfolded in the first two innings. Orlando Arcia's groundout into a double play in the bottom of the second shifted win probability 18.0 percent against Atlanta, the single largest swing of the game, as Dakota Hudson worked through a Braves lineup that failed to capitalize on early opportunities. Marcell Ozuna's strikeout to lead off the bottom of the first had already cost Atlanta 15.1 percent in win probability, and on the Cardinals' side, Jordan Walker's first-inning strikeout against Spencer Strider represented a 13.5 percent swing in St. Louis's favor, followed closely by Paul Goldschmidt's strikeout in the second at 12.8 percent. Eddie Rosario's double in the sixth off Hudson provided Atlanta's most positive single moment at plus 11.6 percent, fueling the Braves' three-run frame, but it proved insufficient to overcome the deficit.
Goldschmidt led all position players with a WPA of plus 18.8 percent and a RE24 of plus 2.1, while Willson Contreras posted the game's best RE24 at plus 2.9 to go alongside a plus 15.0 percent WPA. Jordan Walker contributed plus 11.8 percent in WPA despite a negative RE24 of minus 0.9. On the mound, Dakota Hudson was the pitching standout with a plus 9.3 percent WPA, supported by Andre Pallante at plus 4.1 percent and Ben Heller at plus 1.4 percent. The DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at zero percent for Atlanta, reflecting just how thoroughly St. Louis controlled the afternoon.