Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Athletics: Final Score & Recap

The Oakland Athletics defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 5-2 on September 6, 2023, at Oakland Coliseum, turning what the DiamondIQ model estimated as a 30 percent pre-game home win probability into a complete wire-to-wire victory. Oakland's offense did its decisive work in the fourth and sixth innings, leaving Toronto little room to recover across a game that ended with the model's estimate sitting at 100 percent in Oakland's favor.

The turning point arrived in the bottom of the fourth, when Carlos Pérez launched a home run off Hyun Jin Ryu that swung win probability by 22.8 percent, the single largest play of the game. Brent Rooker followed with a double off Ryu that added another 7.3 percent, extending the inning's damage before a Ryan Noda fielder's choice out cost Oakland 6.9 percent of that ground. Oakland added to its cushion in the sixth when Kevin Smith connected on a three-run home run off Trevor Richards, a swing worth 17.7 percent in win probability that effectively closed out Toronto's realistic path to a comeback. Spencer Horwitz grounded into a double play in the top of the ninth off Trevor May, a sequence that shed another 6.3 percent for the Blue Jays and confirmed the outcome.

Pérez finished as Oakland's top offensive contributor with a WPA of plus-24.8 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.8, while Smith posted the game's best RE24 at plus-2.3 to go with his plus-19.8 percent WPA. On the mound, JP Sears led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-23.7 percent, with Mason Miller adding plus-10.2 percent in support. Toronto's offense managed six hits but could not generate the kind of sustained pressure necessary against an Oakland club that controlled the game from the fourth inning onward.