New York Mets at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets handed the Washington Nationals an 11-5 defeat at Nationals Park on September 5, 2023, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win probability that opened at 52 percent before first pitch closed at zero. The Mets struck early and often, plating four runs in the first inning and adding three more in the third to effectively put the game away before Washington could mount anything meaningful. The Nationals' best chance to claw back came in the bottom of the second, when Jake Alu's flyout off Jose Quintana represented a 9.3 percent swing in win probability against Washington's favor, extinguishing a potential rally before it started. Carter Kieboom's flyout in the bottom of the first off Quintana carried a similar cost, a 7.8 percent negative swing, as the Nationals repeatedly failed to convert early opportunities.

Brett Baty was the game's most impactful offensive performer, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-16.5 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.2. His single off Patrick Corbin in the top of the third added 8.4 percent to the Mets' win probability, and his flyout in the top of the first, also against Corbin, contributed another 8.1 percent swing in New York's direction. Francisco Lindor's home run off Corbin in the third inning added 6.9 percent to the Mets' chances, while Brandon Nimmo finished with a WPA of plus-8.4 percent and a team-best RE24 of plus-2.2. On the mound, Jose Quintana was the game's dominant force, posting a WPA of plus-21.1 percent as he repeatedly shut down Washington's lineup in the early innings, with Sean Reid-Foley adding plus-2.3 percent in relief support.