Seattle Mariners at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds rallied past the Seattle Mariners 7-6 on September 5, 2023 at Great American Ball Park, completing a comeback that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cincinnati win climb from 50% before first pitch to 100% by the game's final out. Seattle had built a 5-1 lead through five innings, highlighted by Julio Rodriguez's home run off Connor Phillips in the top of the fifth, a swing that carried a win-probability impact of +21.0% and represented the high-water mark of the Mariners' night. Cincinnati chipped away with two runs in the bottom of the sixth, but Seattle still held the edge entering the eighth.

The decisive turn came in the bottom of the eighth, when Nick Martini crushed a home run off Justin Topa that registered a +46.4% win-probability swing, the single most consequential play of the game. That blast gave Cincinnati enough momentum to tie or overtake Seattle, and in the bottom of the ninth, Christian Encarnacion-Strand delivered a walk-off single off Andrés Muñoz that added another +28.4% to Cincinnati's win probability and ended the game. Eugenio Suárez's flyout to close the top of the ninth, costing Seattle 12.0% in win probability, left the Mariners without a final-inning answer.

Martini finished as the top performer by WPA at +46.4% with a RE24 of +2.6, while Rodriguez led Seattle's contributors at +27.7% WPA and +2.3 RE24 despite ending on the losing side. Encarnacion-Strand added +26.6% WPA in the final frame. On the pitching side, Bryce Miller paced all pitchers with a +20.0% WPA contribution, and Alexis Díaz earned +13.5% by securing the final three outs and protecting a one-run Cincinnati lead that Martini's eighth-inning blast had created.