San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 2 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | - | 11 | 15 | 2 |
The Story
The Chicago Cubs defeated the San Francisco Giants 11-8 at Wrigley Field on September 5, 2023, in a game that shifted decisively in Chicago's favor after the DiamondIQ model's pre-game home win probability of 58 percent climbed to a final certainty of 100 percent. San Francisco kept the game within reach through the first five innings, scoring single runs in each of the first three frames, and then J.D. Davis delivered the biggest swing of the Giants' night with a three-run home run off Hayden Wesneski in the top of the sixth, a hit that added 27.2 percentage points of win probability and briefly gave San Francisco a fighting edge. That lead proved short-lived, however, as the Cubs answered with a dominant bottom of the seventh that effectively sealed the outcome.
The seventh inning was where Chicago took irreversible control. Seiya Suzuki launched a home run off Tyler Rogers that represented the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 28.7 percent, and Christopher Morel followed later in the frame with another home run, this one off Luke Jackson, adding another 20.9 percentage points. Chicago plated six runs in that inning alone, turning what had been a competitive game into a comfortable victory. Earlier groundwork was laid in the third inning, when Yan Gomes delivered a double off Jakob Junis worth plus 15.1 percent in win probability, and Jeimer Candelario drew a walk that added another 12.2 percent to Chicago's chances.
Suzuki finished as the game's most impactful performer, accumulating plus 40.2 percent in win probability added and plus 3.5 RE24 across his contributions, while Davis led the Giants with plus 26.9 percent WPA and plus 2.3 RE24 despite being on the losing side. Gomes added plus 18.7 percent WPA and plus 1.6 RE24 in support of the Cubs' cause. Out of the bullpen, Scott Alexander led Chicago's relievers at plus 8.1 percent WPA, followed by Ryan Walker at plus 6.5 percent and Jose Cuas at plus 6.0 percent, a trio that held San Francisco in check during the game's critical final stages.