Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 6-3 on September 5, 2023, at loanDepot park, handing Los Angeles a road loss fueled by a series of damaging home runs from Miami's lineup. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 44 percent pre-game win probability for the Marlins, a figure that climbed steadily before reaching 100 percent by the final out. Clayton Kershaw absorbed much of the early damage, surrendering back-to-back home runs in the bottom of the fourth and fifth innings that steadily eroded any Dodgers advantage. Jake Burger's solo shot off Kershaw in the fourth added 11.4 percentage points to Miami's win probability, and while Nick Fortes immediately grounded into a double play to give back 11.1 points, Josh Bell's home run off Kershaw in the fifth swung the needle another 22.8 points in Miami's favor. Chris Taylor briefly kept Los Angeles alive with a home run off A.J. Puk in the top of the seventh, a swing worth 15.6 points, but it proved to be the Dodgers' last meaningful response.

The decisive blow came in the bottom of the eighth, when Bryan De La Cruz connected off Ryan Yarbrough for a home run that shifted win probability by 30.3 points, effectively closing the door on any Dodgers comeback. De La Cruz finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-21.9, paired with a RE24 of plus-0.8, while Burger contributed plus-16.8 WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.4, and Bell added plus-14.8 WPA. On the mound, Miami's bullpen preserved the win with Andrew Nardi leading all pitchers at plus-10.6 WPA, followed by Jesús Luzardo at plus-8.6 and Tanner Scott at plus-2.4. The Marlins finished with 8 hits and committed no errors, converting their four home runs into a methodical and convincing victory.