MLB Recap · September 5, 2023

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers: Final Score & Recap

HOU14
Final
TEX1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
HOU33300050014200
TEX000010000180

The Story

The Houston Astros dismantled the Texas Rangers 14-1 at Globe Life Field on September 5, 2023, in a game that was never truly competitive after the opening frames. The DiamondIQ model's estimate gave Texas a 53% pre-game win probability as the home side, but that number collapsed early and finished at 0% as Houston scored in three consecutive innings to open the contest, pouring on three runs in each of the first three frames before adding five more in the seventh to reach fourteen.

The decisive swing in the game came in the bottom of the second inning, when Robbie Grossman grounded into a double play off Framber Valdez, a play that shifted win probability by 13.6 percentage points against Texas and effectively sealed the tone of the evening. That followed Chas McCormick's forceout in the top of the second, which had moved Houston's chances by 11.1 percentage points in the Astros' favor off Dane Dunning. Even in the first inning, Texas missed an opportunity when Nathaniel Lowe grounded out against Valdez, a swing of 7.6 percentage points that compounded the Rangers' early struggles.

Framber Valdez was the game's most dominant individual force, accumulating a model-leading 22.4% WPA on the mound as Texas managed only eight hits and one run against him. Among Houston's hitters, McCormick led with 11.1% WPA and 0.9 RE24, while Mauricio Dubón contributed 6.9% WPA and Jose Altuve added 4.4% WPA alongside a 2.7 RE24, reflecting his quality at-bats in advancing Houston's run environment throughout the night. The Rangers simply had no answer once Houston's bats and Valdez found their rhythm.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025HOU bats firstFinalTEX win %HOU win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 52.6% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Robbie Grossman Grounded Into DP
Bot 2nd · off Framber Valdez
-13.6%
Chas McCormick Forceout
Top 2nd · off Dane Dunning
+11.1%
Nathaniel Lowe Groundout
Bot 1st · off Framber Valdez
-7.6%
Mauricio Dubón Lineout
Top 1st · off Nathan Eovaldi
+6.3%
José Abreu Single
Top 2nd · off Dane Dunning
+3.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Chas McCormick+11.1%+0.9 RE24
Mauricio Dubón+6.9%+0.1 RE24
Jose Altuve+4.4%+2.7 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
Open Game Center →