Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 16 | 1 |
| SD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
The Story
The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the San Diego Padres 9-7 at Petco Park on September 4, 2023, ending the game with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a 0% win probability for the home side, down from a pre-game projection of 45%. Philadelphia wasted little time seizing control, plating three runs in the first inning and adding three more in the second, building a 6-0 advantage through two frames. San Diego chipped away with three in the fourth, one in the sixth, and two in the seventh, but never managed to complete the comeback, finishing with 10 hits and no errors against seven errors for the Phillies' one.
The seventh inning provided the most dramatic win-probability swings of the contest. Gary Sánchez delivered a double off Gregory Soto that shifted the home team's chances upward by 18.0 percentage points, representing the single largest play of the night. Xander Bogaerts followed with a double of his own off Soto for another 12.2-point swing in San Diego's favor, but Garrett Cooper's sacrifice fly off the same pitcher moved the needle 12.2 points back toward Philadelphia. The Padres carried momentum into the eighth, but Bogaerts grounded out against Craig Kimbrel, a sequence that cost San Diego 16.4 percentage points of win probability. Sánchez drew a walk off José Alvarado in the ninth to add another 11.4-point nudge, effectively sealing the result.
Sánchez finished as the game's most impactful offensive player by DiamondIQ's measure, posting a WPA of plus-26.6% and an RE24 of plus-1.3. Ha-Seong Kim contributed a WPA of plus-15.9% with an RE24 of plus-2.3, the highest run-expectancy figure among position players tracked in the data. Kyle Schwarber added a WPA of plus-6.8% and led all batters with an RE24 of plus-2.4. On the mound, Kimbrel paced the pitching staff with a WPA of plus-13.3%, followed by Jeff Hoffman at plus-11.6% and Taijuan Walker at plus-10.1%, a trio that collectively preserved Philadelphia's multi-run cushion through the final innings.