Seattle Mariners at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 2 |
| CIN | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | 6 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds handled the Seattle Mariners 6-3 at Great American Ball Park on September 4, 2023, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate foreshadowed as relatively even at the outset, assigning Cincinnati a 49 percent pre-game win probability, before ultimately closing at 100 percent in the Reds' favor. Cincinnati did the bulk of its damage early, scoring two runs in the first inning and three more in the second to build a commanding lead that Seattle never seriously threatened. The Mariners finished with nine hits but committed two errors, while the Reds posted a clean defensive performance with no errors across their eight hits.
The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the second inning, where Spencer Steer's home run off Bryan Woo shifted win probability by plus 12.9 percent in Cincinnati's favor, the single largest swing of the game according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Nick Martini followed with a flyout that nonetheless registered a plus 10.0 percent win-probability contribution in that same frame, reflecting how firmly the Reds had seized control of the run-expectancy environment. On the Seattle side, Julio Rodriguez's strikeout against Lucas Sims in the top of the seventh represented the most damaging missed opportunity for the Mariners, costing them 9.2 percent in win probability, while Ty France's groundout in the second and Eugenio Suarez's strikeout in the sixth further extinguished potential rallies.
Steer led all position players with a plus 11.2 percent WPA and plus 1.8 RE24, and Tyler Stephenson contributed plus 10.5 percent WPA with an identical RE24 figure of plus 1.8, making the two the offensive anchors of the Reds' victory. Among the pitching staff, Tejay Antone was the most impactful arm with a plus 10.0 percent WPA, supported by Michael Mariot at plus 4.7 percent and Lucas Sims at plus 3.3 percent, a collective bullpen effort that kept Seattle's lineup in check after the Mariners briefly closed to within striking distance with single runs in the fourth, fifth, and ninth innings.