San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs shut out the San Francisco Giants 5-0 at Wrigley Field on September 4, 2023, holding San Francisco to just two hits while committing no errors. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with a 57 percent home win probability for Chicago, a figure that climbed steadily to 100 percent by the final out as the Cubs controlled the contest from the second inning onward.

The decisive sequence arrived in the bottom of the seventh, when Chicago broke a one-run game open against Logan Webb. Yan Gomes delivered a single that added 8.9 percent to Chicago's win probability, and Seiya Suzuki followed with a double worth 8.6 percent, the two-hit exchange effectively putting the game out of reach. Suzuki had already set the tone in the second inning with a home run off Webb that shifted win probability 7.6 percent in Chicago's favor, giving him a combined WPA of plus-13.9 and a RE24 of plus-2.0 on the night — the top offensive mark in the game. Gomes finished close behind at plus-11.6 WPA. San Francisco's best threat came in the top of the eighth when J.D. Davis drew a walk that nudged the Giants' chances by 5.1 percent, but Casey Schmitt immediately grounded into a double play off Justin Steele, swinging win probability 8.9 percent back toward Chicago and extinguishing the rally.

Justin Steele was the dominant force of the evening, finishing with a WPA of plus-39.4, a figure that reflects how consistently he suppressed San Francisco across his outing. Logan Webb absorbed the loss, finishing at minus-1.5 WPA as the Giants' offense offered him virtually no support, managing only two hits total. The model leans heavily on Steele's performance and Suzuki's timely production as the twin pillars of a thorough Chicago victory.