Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 4-2 at PNC Park on September 4, 2023, handing Corbin Burnes a tough outing and flipping the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a 45 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Pittsburgh was held scoreless through three innings before the fourth and fifth frames did the decisive damage, with the Pirates scoring twice in each to build an insurmountable cushion against a Milwaukee offense that managed only six hits and was hurt by its own mistakes.

The two biggest swings of the game came off the bat of Jack Suwinski and Ke'Bryan Hayes, both at Corbin Burnes's expense. Suwinski's fourth-inning home run shifted win probability 15.5 percent in Pittsburgh's favor, and Hayes followed in the fifth with a solo shot that added another 13.4 percent. Andrew McCutchen amplified the damage with a double in each of those two innings, contributing 7.2 percent in the fourth and 9.3 percent in the fifth. On the Milwaukee side, Christian Yelich's double-play grounder in the top of the fourth was the game's most damaging negative play, costing the Brewers 9.7 percent win probability at a moment when they still had a chance to strike first.

McCutchen was the individual standout by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-17.5 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.3, while Suwinski posted plus-12.8 percent WPA to anchor the middle of the lineup. On the mound, Luis Ortiz was Pittsburgh's most impactful arm at plus-13.3 percent WPA, with Colin Holderman and Carmen Mlodzinski each contributing meaningful leverage work to close out the victory cleanly, the Pirates committing no errors on the night.