Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Athletics: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays held off the Oakland Athletics 6-5 in ten innings on September 4, 2023, at Oakland Coliseum, rallying for three runs in the top of the tenth to overcome a deficit and secure the win. The DiamondIQ model had set Oakland's pre-game win probability at 30 percent, and while the Athletics briefly appeared capable of extending that edge into a victory, the model's estimate fell to zero percent by game's end. Both teams were held scoreless through the first four innings before Toronto struck for three in the fifth, with Oakland chipping back with single runs in the fifth, sixth, and seventh to eventually tie the game heading into extras.

The decisive sequence came in the top of the tenth inning, where Santiago Espinal's double off Francisco Pérez swung win probability by plus-31.3 percent, the single largest play of the game by that measure. Cavan Biggio followed with a single off the same pitcher, adding another plus-24.1 percent swing and pushing Toronto's lead to three runs in the frame. Oakland responded in the bottom of the tenth when Lawrence Butler hit a home run off Jordan Romano that shifted win probability by plus-15.7 percent, but Zack Gelof subsequently grounded into a double play, a plus-16.3 percent swing back in Toronto's favor that effectively closed the door on the Athletics' comeback bid.

Espinal led all position players with a WPA of plus-31.3 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.0, while Biggio posted plus-24.1 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.4. Butler was the standout for Oakland, finishing with a cumulative WPA of plus-28.0 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.8, underpinned by his late home run. On the mound, Lucas Erceg was the top pitcher by WPA at plus-24.1 percent, followed by Génesis Cabrera at plus-9.3 percent and Luis Medina at plus-3.8 percent, each contributing to Oakland's effort to keep the game within reach before Toronto's extra-inning surge proved too much to overcome.