MLB Recap · September 3, 2023

Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers: Final Score & Recap

MIN5
Final
TEX6

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
MIN0000301105110
TEX3000011016130

The Story

The Texas Rangers walked off the Minnesota Twins 6-5 on September 3, 2023, at Globe Life Field, completing a dramatic late-game comeback that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Texas win climb from 58 percent before first pitch to a certainty by the final out. Texas had surrendered a three-run fifth inning to fall behind before eventually forcing and winning a decisive ninth inning on a single swing.

The pivotal sequence began in the top of the fifth, when Royce Lewis launched a home run off Jon Gray that carried a win-probability swing of plus 24.8 percent, erasing a three-run Texas first-inning lead and putting Minnesota ahead. The Twins appeared to be consolidating their advantage into the late innings, but Carlos Correa's grounded into double play in the top of the eighth off Will Smith proved to be the costliest moment of the game for Minnesota, draining 26.9 percent from their win probability and stalling a potential insurance rally. Mitch Garver kept Texas in striking distance with a home run off Cole Sands in the bottom of the seventh, a plus 15.8 percent swing that set the stage for what followed. With two teams separated by a single run entering the ninth, Adolis Garcia ended it immediately, hitting a walk-off home run off Josh Winder for a swing of plus 35.9 percent, the single largest win-probability play of the night.

Among individual performers, Royce Lewis led all batters with a WPA of plus 42.6 percent and an RE24 of plus 3.0, while Garcia finished at plus 40.8 percent WPA despite his modest RE24 of plus 0.2, a reflection of how his contribution arrived in one concentrated, game-ending moment. Garver posted the highest RE24 of any batter at plus 4.4 to go with a WPA of plus 26.8 percent, making him the most consistently impactful bat in the box score. Out of the bullpen, Will Smith led Texas pitchers with a WPA of plus 14.0 percent, followed by Cody Bradford at plus 13.5 percent and Kody Funderburk at plus 10.9 percent, a trio whose collective work bridged the gap to Garcia's decisive ninth-inning blast.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025MIN bats firstFinalTEX win %MIN win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 58% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Adolis García Home Run
Bot 9th · off Josh Winder
+35.9%
Carlos Correa Grounded Into DP
Top 8th · off Will Smith
-26.9%
Royce Lewis Home Run
Top 5th · off Jon Gray
+24.8%
Mitch Garver Home Run
Bot 7th · off Cole Sands
+15.8%
Carlos Correa Single
Top 7th · off Chris Stratton
+15.2%

Top Batters by WPA

Royce Lewis+42.6%+3.0 RE24
Adolis García+40.8%+0.2 RE24
Mitch Garver+26.8%+4.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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