Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Detroit Tigers held off the Chicago White Sox 3-2 on September 3, 2023 at Guaranteed Rate Field, taking a game in which the DiamondIQ model entered with a 47 percent pre-game home win probability for Chicago and finished at zero. Detroit struck first in the second inning with a two-run frame, surrendered those runs right back when Chicago answered with two of its own in the bottom of the first, and the game settled into a pitching-dominated standoff through the middle innings before Spencer Torkelson broke the deadlock.

The decisive blow came in the top of the seventh, when Torkelson hit a home run off Aaron Bummer that swung win probability 17.0 percent in Detroit's favor, the single largest swing of the night. Torkelson finished as the game's top offensive performer by WPA at plus-15.0 percent, making his at-bat against Bummer the clearest turning point in the contest. Chicago mounted a ninth-inning threat that briefly made things uncomfortable — Yasmani Grandal drew a walk and Yoán Moncada singled off Alex Lange, each swing worth plus-12.3 percent win probability for the White Sox — but Gavin Sheets grounded into a forceout that killed the rally at minus-11.9 percent, sealing Detroit's win. Eloy Jiménez's groundout in the eighth off Jason Foley had similarly deflated a Chicago opportunity, costing the Sox 12.9 percent in win probability at that moment.

On the mound, Tarik Skubal led all pitchers with a plus-27.4 percent WPA contribution, followed by Jason Foley at plus-23.3 percent and Tanner Banks at plus-19.2 percent, a collective performance that kept Chicago off the board across the game's critical middle and late innings. Tyler Nevin also contributed offensively with a plus-12.2 percent WPA and plus-0.8 RE24, rounding out the core of Detroit's winning effort. Chicago managed six hits to Detroit's five but could not convert them into enough run support to overcome the Tigers' pitching.