Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 6-4 at Busch Stadium on September 3, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 51 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. St. Louis built its advantage in the middle innings, with the Cardinals and Pirates exchanging two runs apiece in the second and fourth frames before St. Louis gradually pulled away. A Jordan Walker home run off Johan Oviedo in the bottom of the third shifted the probability by 9.9 percent in St. Louis's favor, and Nolan Gorman's run-scoring single off Oviedo in the second had already moved the needle 10.4 percent for the home side. Pittsburgh's most meaningful response came in the top of the fourth, when Liover Peguero doubled off Zack Thompson to generate a 12.5 percent swing for the Pirates, and Connor Joe drew a walk off Andre Pallante in the eighth for an 8.7 percent bump, though neither rally proved sufficient.

The single play that most decisively shaped the outcome came in the bottom of the fourth, when Alec Burleson singled off Ryan Borucki for an 18.1 percent win-probability swing, the largest of the game. Burleson finished as the top performer by WPA at plus 15.9 percent, while Andrew McCutchen contributed a plus 12.8 percent WPA alongside a plus 1.0 RE24, and Lars Nootbaar added plus 8.1 percent WPA with a plus 1.5 RE24, the best run-expectancy figure among position players. Pittsburgh's errors, two on the night against none for St. Louis, further complicated their path back into the contest.

On the pitching side, Giovanny Gallegos led Cardinals relievers with a plus 6.3 percent WPA, and Zack Thompson added plus 5.7 percent despite surrendering the Peguero double. The Cardinals held the Pirates to four runs on eight hits while committing no errors, a clean defensive performance that complemented their bullpen work. Pittsburgh managed eight hits of their own but could not string together enough damage against the St. Louis staff, and the final score of 6-4 reflected a game that was largely in hand for the home side from the middle innings onward. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting the Cardinals' fourth-inning production, anchored by Burleson's key hit, as the sequence that effectively decided the outcome.