San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres shut out the San Francisco Giants 4-0 on September 3, 2023, at Petco Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 50 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. San Diego did its decisive damage early, scoring three runs in the first inning and one more in the third to put the game out of reach before it ever developed into a contest. Alex Cobb absorbed the brunt of the damage on the mound for San Francisco, surrendering all four runs, including a first-inning forceout by Matthew Batten that shifted win probability 6.2 percent in San Diego's favor and a Juan Soto home run in that same frame worth an additional 4.0 percent swing. Manny Machado then extended the lead with a third-inning home run off Cobb that added 6.4 percent to San Diego's win probability, effectively closing the door on any Giants comeback.

On the pitching side, Seth Lugo was the central figure in the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing with a 25.9 percent WPA, by far the largest contribution of any pitcher in the game. His effort suppressed whatever slim hopes San Francisco carried, and a notable sequence came in the second inning when J.D. Davis grounded out against him, a play that shifted win probability 8.3 percent away from the Giants. Cobb finished as the losing pitcher having faced the heart of the Padres order repeatedly and yielding all four of San Diego's runs. The Giants managed only four hits and committed two errors against none for the Padres, with San Francisco's offensive struggles underscoring just how thoroughly San Diego controlled the game from the opening frame through the ninth.