Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs rolled past the Cincinnati Reds 15-7 at Great American Ball Park on September 3, 2023, turning what opened as a fairly even contest into a convincing road victory. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Cincinnati a 52 percent chance to win, but that edge evaporated steadily before collapsing entirely by the final out, with the model's estimate finishing at zero percent. The Cubs built an early lead, saw the Reds respond in the second inning when Tyler Stephenson launched a home run off Jameson Taillon for a plus-12.2 percent win-probability swing, and the two clubs traded runs through the sixth before Chicago seized control for good.

The decisive turning point came in a massive eighth inning, where the Cubs plated seven runs and effectively ended any realistic path to a Reds comeback. The biggest single play of the game came in the seventh, when Ian Happ singled off Ian Gibaut to shift the win probability by plus-14.3 percent in Chicago's favor, followed closely by Nick Madrigal's single against Alexis Díaz in the eighth, worth plus-14.1 percent. Cody Bellinger had already swung momentum significantly in the sixth with a home run off Chasen Shreve, a plus-13.6 percent play that countered Stephenson's answering single off Daniel Palencia moments later in the bottom half.

Despite his team's loss, Stephenson was the game's most impactful individual performer by the DiamondIQ model's measure, finishing with a combined plus-26.5 percent WPA and plus-2.8 RE24 on the strength of his two-hit effort. Seiya Suzuki led all Cubs position players with a plus-15.9 percent WPA contribution, while Ian Happ matched Stephenson's plus-2.8 RE24 and added plus-11.9 percent WPA. On the pitching side, Lucas Sims provided the most value among Reds relievers at plus-7.1 percent WPA. The Cubs finished with 18 hits and committed no errors, while Cincinnati's single miscue compounded an already difficult afternoon on the mound.