Toronto Blue Jays at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Colorado Rockies 7-5 at Coors Field on September 3, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate entering the game giving Colorado a 36 percent chance at home, a figure that fell to zero by the final out. Toronto built its advantage through a pair of pivotal innings, doing its most significant damage in the fifth and ninth. In the top of the fifth, Spencer Horwitz delivered a single off Tommy Doyle that swung win probability 13.2 points in Toronto's favor, and Davis Schneider followed with a double off Doyle that added another 13.0 points, helping the Blue Jays push across three runs in the frame. Colorado answered in the bottom half when Hunter Goodman stroked a double off Trevor Richards that shifted the win probability 21.3 points toward the Rockies and kept the game competitive at 5-4. The Blue Jays then put the game away in the top of the ninth when Whit Merrifield singled off Justin Lawrence for the single largest win-probability swing of the afternoon, a 33.0-point move that gave Toronto the cushion it needed heading into the final half-inning.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. led all position players with a WPA of plus-25.5 and a RE24 of plus-2.2, while Spencer Horwitz contributed plus-23.3 WPA and plus-1.9 RE24 to anchor the Blue Jays offense. Nolan Jones posted a plus-21.2 WPA for Colorado despite his flyout off Jordan Romano in the bottom of the ninth registering a plus-14.4 WPA shift, reflecting how close the Rockies came to extending the game. On the pitching side, Chad Green led Toronto's relievers at plus-10.9 WPA, followed by Tyler Kinley at plus-10.6 and Matt Koch at plus-8.3, as the three combined to hold Colorado scoreless over the final four innings and preserve the two-run victory.