MLB Recap · September 3, 2023

Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics: Final Score & Recap

LAA6
Final
OAK10

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
LAA000300102692
OAK00000460-10101

The Story

The Oakland Athletics overcame an early deficit to defeat the Los Angeles Angels 10-6 at Oakland Coliseum on September 3, 2023, in a game that saw a dramatic reversal of fortune across the middle innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the contest giving Oakland just a 37% chance of winning, a figure that eroded further after Eduardo Escobar put the Angels on the board first with a three-run home run off Kyle Muller in the top of the fourth, a swing that shifted win probability by 19.5 percentage points in Los Angeles's favor. Oakland answered decisively in the sixth and seventh innings, erasing the deficit and seizing full control through a sustained burst of run production that ultimately pushed the model's estimate to 100% in Oakland's favor by game's end.

The two innings that decided the contest were the sixth and seventh, where Oakland's offense generated the game's three most impactful plays by win-probability swing. Ryan Noda launched a home run off Tyler Anderson in the bottom of the sixth, a 19.8-point swing, before Seth Brown followed with a home run of his own off Andrew Wantz in the same frame for the game's single largest play at plus 25.7 percentage points. Tony Kemp then delivered a single off José Soriano in the seventh worth 21.7 points of win probability, extending the lead at a moment when the Angels had no remaining margin for error. Luis Rengifo answered with a solo home run off Adrián Martinez in the top of the seventh, worth 15.8 points, but Oakland's cushion by that point was insurmountable.

Ryan Noda was the game's standout performer by the DiamondIQ model's metrics, finishing with a cumulative WPA of plus 35.9% and an RE24 of plus 2.7, reflecting his sustained contribution to Oakland's run-scoring environment across the game. Seth Brown added plus 25.9% WPA and plus 2.0 RE24, while Tony Kemp's plus 21.7% WPA and plus 1.7 RE24 rounded out a formidable top of Oakland's offensive ledger. On the pitching side, Francisco Pérez led Athletics relievers with plus 4.5% WPA, helping preserve the lead through the final innings as Oakland closed out a convincing win despite the unfavorable pre-game probability it had been assigned.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025LAA bats firstFinalOAK win %LAA win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 37.2% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Seth Brown Home Run
Bot 6th · off Andrew Wantz
+25.7%
Tony Kemp Single
Bot 7th · off José Soriano
+21.7%
Ryan Noda Home Run
Bot 6th · off Tyler Anderson
+19.8%
Eduardo Escobar Home Run
Top 4th · off Kyle Muller
+19.5%
Luis Rengifo Home Run
Top 7th · off Adrián Martinez
+15.8%

Top Batters by WPA

Ryan Noda+35.9%+2.7 RE24
Seth Brown+25.9%+2.0 RE24
Tony Kemp+21.7%+1.7 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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