Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| MIL | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 7 | 12 | 1 |
The Story
The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 7-5 on September 2, 2023, at American Family Field, handing Aaron Nola a difficult afternoon and pushing the DiamondIQ model's final win probability to 100% in Milwaukee's favor after opening with a 55% pre-game estimate for the home side.
Nola bore the brunt of Milwaukee's most consequential swings. The Brewers grabbed an early foothold in the second inning when Christian Yelich singled for a +7.8% win-probability swing, and Tyrone Taylor followed with a double worth +6.9%, helping Milwaukee build a 3-1 lead through two frames. A Taylor groundout in the fourth temporarily swung momentum back toward Philadelphia by 6.6%, but the fifth inning proved decisive. Mark Canha delivered a double off Nola for +6.5%, and Carlos Santana followed with a home run that registered as the game's single largest probability shift at +15.7%, extending the Brewers lead to 7-1 at that point. Philadelphia would chip away across the final innings but never threatened seriously enough to close the gap.
Among Milwaukee's standouts, Santana finished with the best overall batting contribution at +13.7% WPA and +1.2 RE24, while Canha matched his offensive impact with +12.9% WPA and a team-leading +1.7 RE24. Brice Turang added +6.5% WPA and +1.3 RE24 in support. The bullpen locked down Philadelphia's late attempts, with Andrew Chafin leading relievers at +4.4% WPA, followed by Colin Rea at +3.9% and Devin Williams at +2.4%.