Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 2 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds walked off the Chicago Cubs 2-1 on September 2, 2023, at Great American Ball Park in a game that was scoreless through six innings before breaking open in dramatic fashion at the end. Jeimer Candelario gave Chicago the only lead of the night with a seventh-inning home run off Andrew Abbott, a swing that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate by +16.5% in the Cubs' favor and stood as the margin until the Reds came to bat in the ninth.
What had been a one-run Cubs lead entering the bottom of the ninth became a Reds victory through a sequence of three consecutive damaging plays against Mark Leiter Jr. TJ Friedl opened the inning with a walk that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate +20.3% toward Cincinnati, then Jake Fraley followed with a double that added another +25.1%, pulling the Reds to within a run with no outs. Elly De La Cruz then singled to push the estimate another +22.8%, and Hunter Renfroe's forceout off Jose Cuas ultimately drove in the winning run, a play credited with +15.4% in win probability to close out the comeback.
On the pitching side, Javier Assad was the most valuable arm by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing with +63.2% WPA for Chicago despite the loss, a figure that reflects how thoroughly he kept Cincinnati off the board through the bulk of the game. Andrew Abbott added +15.4% WPA for the Reds. Among position players, De La Cruz led all hitters at +25.5% WPA with a +1.3 RE24, followed closely by Fraley at +25.2% WPA and Friedl at +23.7% WPA, the three Reds at the center of the ninth-inning rally that handed Cincinnati the win.