Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 7-5 on September 1, 2023, at American Family Field in a game that hinged almost entirely on a chaotic eighth inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the night with Milwaukee as a modest favorite at 55% home win probability, but the game's true shape did not emerge until late, when a sequence of pivotal plays swung the outcome decisively toward the Brewers.

Philadelphia appeared to seize control in the top of the eighth when Trea Turner launched a home run off Devin Williams, the single most impactful offensive play of the night at plus 53.7% win probability, briefly tilting the game sharply in the Phillies' favor. Milwaukee had built its lead on a Willy Adames home run off Zack Wheeler in the bottom of the fourth, a plus 29.5% swing that gave the Brewers their early cushion. But the bottom of the eighth proved to be where the game was truly decided. A fielding error credited to Owen Miller generated a plus 45.8% win probability shift off Jeff Hoffman, the largest single swing in Milwaukee's favor, and subsequent walks to Carlos Santana and Tyrone Taylor off Jose Alvarado, worth plus 18.9% and plus 17.2% respectively, pushed Milwaukee to a position from which Philadelphia could not recover.

Despite finishing with the highest individual WPA on either side, Turner was on the losing end as Milwaukee's rally overwhelmed the Phillies bullpen. Owen Miller finished as the game's second-highest WPA contributor at plus 44.7% with a plus 2.1 RE24, while Carlos Santana added plus 20.6% WPA. On the pitching side, Freddy Peralta led all arms at plus 19.6% WPA, with Hoby Milner and Gregory Soto also contributing positively for the Brewers. The DiamondIQ model closed with Milwaukee's win probability at 100% after the final out.