Baltimore Orioles at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Baltimore Orioles 4-2 on September 1, 2023, at Chase Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win beginning at 44% before ultimately closing at 100%. Arizona scored in two separate bursts, plating two runs in the first inning and two more in the sixth to build the cushion that would hold through the final out. Baltimore managed eight hits but the error on their side and an inability to capitalize in key moments kept them from mounting a serious challenge.

The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the sixth, where Tommy Pham delivered a double off Cole Irvin that shifted win probability by 6.4 percentage points, setting the table for Christian Walker's two-run home run, the single most consequential play of the game at plus 12.8 percentage points of win probability added. Walker finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 12.1, with a RE24 of plus 1.3, and his blast effectively put the outcome beyond reach. Baltimore's best offensive moment arrived in the top of the ninth when Cedric Mullins singled off Paul Sewald to nudge win probability 6.6 points in Baltimore's favor, but the Orioles could not convert that opportunity into runs.

On the pitching side, Zach Davies was the dominant story, posting a plus 33.0 WPA to lead all pitchers, a figure that reflects his sustained control over Baltimore's lineup across his time in the game. A double play off his pitching in the third inning, when Anthony Santander grounded into a twin killing at a cost of 9.9 percentage points, demonstrated the kind of run-prevention that kept Arizona's slim early lead intact. Paul Sewald added plus 6.3 WPA in relief despite surrendering the Mullins single, while Kyle Nelson contributed plus 2.2 WPA as Arizona's bullpen closed out the 4-2 win.