San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| SD | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | 7 | 13 | 0 |
The Story
The San Diego Padres defeated the San Francisco Giants 7-3 at Petco Park on September 1, 2023, turning what the DiamondIQ model opened as a near coin-flip — 48 percent home win probability — into a dominant home outcome. San Diego built its advantage early, scoring three runs in the first inning and adding another in the second, seizing control before the Giants could establish any consistent offensive rhythm. The Padres finished with 13 hits and committed no errors, while San Francisco managed nine hits, committed one error, and could not string together enough damage against a Padres pitching staff that kept them largely in check from the second inning onward.
The game's most consequential sequence came in the middle innings, driven by San Diego's Fernando Tatis Jr. and Luis Campusano. Tatis Jr. contributed the single biggest positive swing for San Diego, a forceout in the bottom of the second off Tristan Beck that added 6.7 percent to the Padres' win probability, part of a night in which he finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-10.4 percent and plus-1.3 RE24. Campusano was nearly as impactful, delivering a single off Beck in the bottom of the third that added 6.3 percent, closing the night at plus-10.0 percent WPA and a team-best plus-1.6 RE24. On the Giants' side, the most damaging moments came when opportunities dissolved — Brandon Crawford's strikeout against Michael Wacha in the second inning cost San Francisco 6.9 percent in win probability, and Wilmer Flores grounded into a double play off Scott Barlow in the ninth, a minus-7.4 percent swing that extinguished any remaining hope.
Michael Wacha was the clear pitching standout, posting plus-17.7 percent WPA for San Diego and anchoring a staff performance that kept the Giants' offense largely passive after Thairo Estrada's fourth-inning double off Wacha, which represented San Francisco's most impactful offensive moment at plus-5.1 percent WPA. Nick Martinez and Alex Wood added modest contributions of plus-1.5 and plus-1.1 percent WPA respectively. The DiamondIQ model's estimate reached 100 percent by game's end, a reflection of how thoroughly San Diego controlled proceedings from the opening frame forward.