Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Chicago Cubs 3-2 on September 1, 2023, at Great American Ball Park in a game that remained tightly contested through eight innings before a stunning ninth-inning collapse by Chicago sealed the outcome. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 52 percent home win probability for Cincinnati, a figure that climbed to 100 percent by game's end following a two-run Reds rally that erased a 2-1 Cubs advantage.
The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the ninth against Adbert Alzolay. Noelvi Marte delivered a single that swung win probability by 35.9 points in Cincinnati's favor, setting the stage for Nick Martini's walk-off home run, which added another 47.1 points and ended the game outright. Those two plays in succession represented the sharpest win-probability swing of the night and effectively undid the work Chicago had built across the previous eight frames. Earlier, Cody Bellinger had given the Cubs a lead with a third-inning home run off Lyon Richardson, worth 10.9 points of win probability, and Ian Happ extended the advantage with a fifth-inning single off Sam Moll that added 12.7 points. A Spencer Steer strikeout in the bottom of the eighth against Mark Leiter Jr. briefly preserved Chicago's hopes, registering a 19.9-point swing in the Cubs' favor.
Among individual performers, Nick Martini led all batters with a WPA of plus-38.2, while Marte contributed plus-22.5 and Jake Fraley added plus-14.2 with a team-best RE24 of plus-1.1. On the pitching side, Hayden Wesneski paced all hurlers with a WPA of plus-27.1, followed by Leiter Jr. at plus-23.3 and Ian Gibaut at plus-14.0, though none of their efforts proved sufficient once Alzolay entered in the ninth and allowed the Reds to walk it off.