Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves handed the Los Angeles Dodgers a 6-3 defeat at Dodger Stadium on September 1, 2023, building their lead steadily across the middle innings and never relinquishing it. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with the two clubs essentially even at 49 percent in favor of the home side, but that balance shifted decisively in Atlanta's favor by the third inning and never returned, finishing at zero percent for Los Angeles.

The decisive damage came off Dodgers starter Julio Urías in the form of back-to-back home runs. Ronald Acuña Jr. connected in the third inning for a swing worth plus 9.8 percent in win probability, the single largest play of the game, giving Atlanta an early cushion. Marcell Ozuna followed in the fourth with another solo shot off Urías, adding 8.9 percent to Atlanta's probability of winning. Austin Riley then extended the lead in the fifth with a double worth plus 7.0 percent. The Dodgers' best chance to respond came in the bottom of the fourth, when Will Smith grounded into a double play off Max Fried, a moment that cost Los Angeles 8.5 percent in win probability and effectively stalled their most credible threat of the evening.

The individual performance leaders aligned closely with those key moments. Acuña finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 13.4 percent, while Ozuna contributed plus 11.1 percent alongside a team-high RE24 of plus 2.2, indicating how much run value his contributions produced relative to the average expectation. Riley added plus 5.5 percent. On the mound, Max Fried was the game's dominant individual performer, posting a WPA of plus 24.6 percent, by far the largest single contribution of the night from any player. Michael Tonkin and Caleb Ferguson provided modest support out of the bullpen, finishing at plus 2.3 and plus 0.6 percent respectively. Atlanta's 14 hits against six for Los Angeles told a complementary story to the probability numbers.