New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

The Detroit Tigers walked off the New York Yankees 4-3 in ten innings on August 31, 2023, at Comerica Park, in a game that was scoreless through eight innings before a wild finish swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a dead-even 50 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent in Detroit's favor. The Tigers grabbed the game's first run in the bottom of the fifth when Zack Short connected on a home run off Clarke Schmidt, a swing that shifted win probability by 12.4 percentage points. That lead held until the ninth, when Anthony Volpe answered with a home run off Alex Lange, a three-run blast that moved the needle a game-high 36.8 percentage points and gave New York a 3-1 advantage heading into the bottom half. Detroit managed to keep the deficit from widening when Kerry Carpenter's strikeout in the bottom of the ninth, registered as a 14.0-point swing in the pitching team's favor, ended the frame without further damage and set the stage for extra innings.

Detroit needed just one at-bat in the tenth to end it. With the automatic runner in place, Zack Short grounded into a forceout off Jonathan Loáisiga that scored the winning run, a play the DiamondIQ model valued at a 35.9 percentage point swing. Short finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-49.2 percent with an RE24 of plus-2.1, his two decisive plate appearances bookending the dramatic late innings. Volpe led all Yankees with a plus-40.1 WPA and a plus-2.6 RE24, accounting for all three New York runs with his ninth-inning blast, while Carpenter contributed a plus-22.2 WPA despite going without an RBI. On the pitching side, Matt Manning paced all pitchers with a plus-27.0 WPA, setting the tone through the early scoreless frames that kept Detroit in the game long enough for Short to deliver the final blow.