Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

Baltimore pulled away decisively on August 29, 2023, topping the Chicago White Sox 9-3 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Baltimore holding a 76 percent pre-game win probability, a figure that climbed steadily before closing at 100 percent as the Orioles constructed a comfortable victory built on a pair of dominant late innings.

The game's most consequential moment came in the bottom of the seventh, when Anthony Santander doubled off Aaron Bummer to swing win probability 31.2 percent in Baltimore's favor, the single largest play of the contest. That hit served as the centerpiece of a three-run seventh that broke the game open after Chicago's Lenyn Sosa had briefly given the White Sox life with a solo home run off Dean Kremer in the top of the third, a swing that added 10.7 percent to Chicago's win probability. Baltimore then poured on five more runs in the eighth to make the final margin emphatic, and a two-run White Sox ninth in garbage time did little to alter the outcome.

Among position players, Santander finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-17.7 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.7, while Sosa's home run left him at plus-10.7 percent and plus-1.5 RE24. Luis Robert Jr. contributed a plus-8.9 percent WPA for Chicago despite the loss. On the mound, the Baltimore bullpen carried much of the analytical weight in a counterintuitive way — Jesse Scholtens posted a plus-22.0 percent WPA and Danny Coulombe a plus-21.6 percent WPA, both figures accruing to Chicago's pitching staff as the model credited them for limiting damage relative to run-expectancy in innings that nonetheless ended in Baltimore's favor overall.