Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| SF | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | 6 | 7 | 1 |
The Story
The San Francisco Giants rolled past the Cincinnati Reds 6-1 at Oracle Park on August 29, 2023, a result that the DiamondIQ model's estimate saw coming relatively early. San Francisco entered with a 56% pre-game home win probability, but that figure climbed steadily to 100% by game's end, with the decisive damage concentrated in the second and third innings against Reds starter Brandon Williamson.
The game's most consequential sequence unfolded in the bottom of the third, where Patrick Bailey delivered the single biggest swing of the night, a home run off Williamson that shifted win probability by plus 10.9 points and served as the knockout blow in what was already a building Giants lead. Earlier in that same inning, Austin Slater had extended the frame with a double worth plus 4.5 points, and a fielding error charged to Mitch Haniger added another plus 7.0 points to San Francisco's advantage. The second inning had already primed things when Luis Matos laced a double off Williamson for a plus 5.6 point swing. Cincinnati's lone threat against the model's trajectory was a Wilmer Flores flyout in the third that briefly trimmed San Francisco's probability by 4.6 points, but the Giants answered immediately.
Among individual performers, Bailey finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 12.7 points to go with a RE24 of plus 1.7, while Matos added plus 5.4 points and Haniger contributed plus 5.2 despite his zero RE24. On the mound, Alex Cobb was the clear standout, posting a plus 15.5 WPA that towered over any other pitcher in the game and reflected a dominant performance against a Cincinnati offense that managed just one hit and one run across nine innings.