Pittsburgh Pirates at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the Kansas City Royals 6-3 at Kauffman Stadium on August 29, 2023, in a game that remained close through seven innings before breaking open in the final two frames. The DiamondIQ model entered the evening giving Kansas City a 39% chance of winning at home, a figure that ultimately fell to zero as Pittsburgh's offense awoke late against the Royals bullpen.

The decisive moment came in the top of the eighth inning, when Ke'Bryan Hayes connected on a home run off Carlos Hernández that swung win probability by +37.4 percentage points in Pittsburgh's favor, the single largest play of the game by that measure. Liover Peguero had set the table moments earlier with a single off Austin Cox worth +7.9% in win probability, and Kansas City's best chance to answer died quietly when Bobby Witt Jr. grounded out against Colin Holderman in the bottom half, a sequence that cost the Royals 12.9 percentage points of win probability. Peguero added a home run off Steven Cruz in the top of the ninth for an additional +12.0% swing, capping the Pittsburgh scoring at six runs.

Hayes finished as the game's top offensive contributor by WPA at +29.7%, with a RE24 of +1.5, while Peguero posted +18.5% WPA and led all position players with a RE24 of +2.6. On the pitching side, Cole Ragans carried the largest WPA among pitchers at +43.8% despite being on the losing side, a reflection of his ability to limit damage through much of the contest, particularly when he induced a Bryan Reynolds double play in the sixth worth -7.8% against Pittsburgh. Colin Holderman contributed +23.3% WPA out of the Pittsburgh bullpen, and Luis Ortiz added +14.4%, with the DiamondIQ model favoring the Pirates in the late innings as their bullpen secured the three-run victory.