MLB Recap · August 29, 2023

Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

CLE4
Final
MIN2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CLE0111001004111
MIN000100001270

The Story

The Cleveland Guardians handed the Minnesota Twins a 4-2 defeat at Target Field on August 29, 2023, erasing a pre-game home win probability of 58 percent according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate and dropping Minnesota's final chances to zero. Cleveland built its lead incrementally, plating a run in the second, third, and seventh innings before the Twins added a consolation run in the bottom of the ninth, finishing with an 11-7 edge in hits.

The decisive moments were distributed across multiple innings, with the top of the third proving especially damaging for Minnesota. A Kole Calhoun double off Pablo López shifted win probability by 9.2 percent in Cleveland's favor, and a Will Brennan walk that followed moved it another 9.1 percent, making that sequence the most consequential stretch of offense in the game. Brennan extended his impact in the seventh with an RBI single off Emilio Pagán that swung win probability an additional 10.8 percent toward the Guardians. On the other side, Royce Lewis provided the Twins' best moment with a fourth-inning home run off Hunter Gaddis that moved Minnesota's win probability 10.0 percent, briefly keeping them in contention before Cleveland's bullpen shut the door.

Brennan finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-17.4 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.5, while Calhoun added plus-8.5 percent. On the mound, Sam Hentges led all pitchers with a plus-14.0 percent WPA contribution, and Emmanuel Clase closed it out as Polanco's ninth-inning pop out, counterintuitively the single highest WPA event of the game at plus-14.4 percent for Cleveland, sealed the final out. Gaddis and Trevor Stephan each contributed positively despite Gaddis surrendering the Lewis homer, finishing at plus-10.0 and plus-6.3 percent respectively.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CLE bats firstFinalMIN win %CLE win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 58.4% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Jorge Polanco Pop Out
Bot 9th · off Emmanuel Clase
+14.4%
Will Brennan Single
Top 7th · off Emilio Pagán
+10.8%
Royce Lewis Home Run
Bot 4th · off Hunter Gaddis
+10.0%
Kole Calhoun Double
Top 3rd · off Pablo López
+9.2%
Will Brennan Walk
Top 3rd · off Pablo López
+9.1%

Top Batters by WPA

Will Brennan+17.4%+1.5 RE24
Jorge Polanco+12.9%-0.5 RE24
Kole Calhoun+8.5%+0.8 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

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