MLB Recap · August 28, 2023

Pittsburgh Pirates at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap

PIT5
Final
KC0

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
PIT0110002105120
KC000000000020

The Story

The Pittsburgh Pirates shut out the Kansas City Royals 5-0 at Kauffman Stadium on August 28, 2023, holding Kansas City to just two hits across nine innings while producing 12 of their own. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the home Royals a 39% chance of winning, a figure that eroded steadily before reaching 0% at the final out. Pittsburgh scored in the second, third, seventh, and eighth innings, with the seventh proving decisive as the Pirates broke the game open with a two-run frame.

The seventh inning was the turning point by every measurable standard. Andrew McCutchen's single off Taylor Hearn carried the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus 9.1%, followed immediately by a Joshua Palacios single worth plus 7.7% and an Alfonso Rivas III double that added another plus 5.4%. Hearn absorbed all three of those blows as the Pirates pushed two runs across in that frame. Earlier, Ji Hwan Bae's double off Zack Greinke in the third inning had provided Pittsburgh with plus 5.9% in win probability, sustaining the steady pressure that characterized the Pirates' approach all evening. Kansas City's best chance to change the complexion of the game came in the bottom of the fifth, when Matt Duffy grounded into a double play off Johan Oviedo, a sequence that cost the Royals 7.1% in win probability and effectively ended their most threatening sequence.

Johan Oviedo was the story on the mound, generating plus 30.6% in win probability for Pittsburgh and limiting Kansas City to their meager two-hit total across his outing. Tucker Davidson contributed plus 6.4% in relief. Among position players, Palacios led with plus 7.7% WPA and plus 1.4 RE24, while Ke'Bryan Hayes added plus 6.3% WPA and plus 1.1 RE24. McCutchen posted plus 5.1% WPA despite finishing with a minus 0.9 RE24, reflecting the situational weight his seventh-inning single carried even as his overall run-environment contributions fell below zero.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025PIT bats firstFinalKC win %PIT win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 39.3% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Andrew McCutchen Single
Top 7th · off Taylor Hearn
+9.1%
Joshua Palacios Single
Top 7th · off Taylor Hearn
+7.7%
Matt Duffy Grounded Into DP
Bot 5th · off Johan Oviedo
-7.1%
Jihwan Bae Double
Top 3rd · off Zack Greinke
+5.9%
Top 7th · off Taylor Hearn
+5.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Joshua Palacios+7.7%+1.4 RE24
Ke'Bryan Hayes+6.3%+1.1 RE24
Andrew McCutchen+5.1%-0.9 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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