San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres handed the St. Louis Cardinals a 4-1 defeat at Busch Stadium on August 28, 2023, a result that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cardinals win from 49% before first pitch down to 0% by the final out. San Diego's offense was held scoreless through five innings before breaking through in the sixth, and the game remained close enough entering the eighth that St. Louis still had a realistic path to victory. That window closed quickly. Paul Goldschmidt's home run off Robert Suarez in the bottom of the eighth was the Cardinals' most impactful swing of the night in terms of win probability, adding 18.2 percentage points to their chances, but it accounted for the team's only run and ultimately amounted to too little. Willson Contreras followed with a lineout that swung the momentum right back, costing St. Louis 12.9 percentage points, and the Padres added two insurance runs in the top of the ninth to seal it.

The game's most consequential individual contributors, measured by the DiamondIQ model's win-probability accounting, were spread across both sides. Garrett Cooper led the way for San Diego offensively, his seventh-inning single generating a 13.1 percentage point swing and landing him at plus-19.0% WPA with a RE24 of plus-1.8 on the night. Goldschmidt finished as the top Cardinals batter at plus-20.2% WPA and plus-1.6 RE24, though his contributions came in a losing effort. Fernando Tatis Jr. chipped in a modest plus-6.7% WPA for the Padres. On the mound, Blake Snell was the decisive factor, posting a plus-38.3% WPA that dwarfed every other pitcher in the game. Adam Wainwright provided the Cardinals their best pitching value at plus-14.8% WPA, and Robert Suarez added plus-4.5% WPA in relief despite surrendering the Goldschmidt homer, as the Padres held firm when it mattered most.