Washington Nationals at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the visiting Washington Nationals 6-3 on August 28, 2023, at Rogers Centre, pulling away from an early deficit to claim a comfortable victory. The DiamondIQ model entered the game favoring Toronto at 62% and closed at 100% as the Blue Jays controlled the contest through the middle innings.

The decisive stretch came in the bottom of the second, when the Blue Jays erupted for four runs against Nationals starter Josiah Gray. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. delivered a double that shifted win probability by plus-13.3 percentage points, the single largest swing of the game, and Davis Schneider added a single that pushed the needle an additional 6.7 points. Washington had gotten on the board first with a run in the top of the first, and a Daulton Varsho flyout to end that half-inning represented a minus-6.9-point swing that effectively capped the Nationals' early opportunity. The Blue Jays tacked on a run in the third and another in the fifth, the latter courtesy of a Kevin Kiermaier single off Andrés Machado that added 7.3 points of win probability. The Nationals answered with two runs in the top of the fifth on a Joey Meneses double off Kevin Gausman worth plus-7.4 points, but it was too little against a comfortable Toronto cushion.

On the individual ledger, Kevin Kiermaier led all batters with a plus-11.6 WPA and 1.3 RE24, while Guerrero finished at plus-10.5 WPA and Danny Jansen contributed plus-9.9 WPA alongside the game's top RE24 mark of 1.4 among position players. On the mound, Trevor Richards was the most impactful arm by win probability, finishing at plus-10.0 WPA, with Génesis Cabrera and Jordan Hicks providing additional support out of the bullpen. Washington's errors, two on the afternoon against none for Toronto, further reflected the execution gap that defined the afternoon.