Los Angeles Angels at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | 6 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Los Angeles Angels 6-4 at Citizens Bank Park on August 28, 2023, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Philadelphia win from 62% before first pitch to a certainty by the final out. The Angels drew first blood in the top of the first before the game settled into a pitching stalemate through three innings, but the fourth inning proved pivotal for both sides. Bryce Harper gave Philadelphia a lift with an 18.6-percentage-point swing in home win probability, driving a home run off Lucas Giolito to answer a Brandon Drury single in the top half that had swung win probability 15.6 points in Los Angeles's favor and kept the Angels within striking distance after a two-run Philadelphia frame.
The decisive blow came in the bottom of the fifth, when Trea Turner connected on a solo home run against Giolito that represented the single largest win-probability swing of the night, adding 21.1 percentage points to Philadelphia's chances and extending the lead at a moment when the Angels still harbored realistic hope of a comeback. Turner finished as the game's most impactful batter by WPA at plus-26.4 percentage points with a RE24 of plus-3.0, while Harper contributed plus-18.4 percentage points and Drury was the Angels' most damaging offensive force at plus-20.6 percentage points with a RE24 of plus-1.3. Mickey Moniak kept Los Angeles alive with a single off Matt Strahm in the seventh that added 10.4 points of win probability, and Brandon Marsh extended a Philadelphia insurance run with a ninth-inning single off Dominic Leone worth 9.4 points.
Philadelphia's bullpen ultimately secured the victory, with Jeff Hoffman leading all pitchers at plus-11.3 percentage points of win probability added, followed closely by Gregory Soto at plus-10.8 and Craig Kimbrel at plus-6.3, shutting the door on an Angels lineup that finished with 11 hits but could not overcome the damage Turner and Harper inflicted against Giolito in the middle innings.