San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 1 |
| MIL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | - | 10 | 10 | 0 |
The Story
The Milwaukee Brewers turned a close game into a comfortable win, defeating the San Diego Padres 10-6 at American Family Field on August 27, 2023. The DiamondIQ model entered the night already favoring Milwaukee at 63% and watched that figure climb steadily before reaching 100% by the final out. The Padres drew first blood with a run in the top of the first, but Milwaukee answered immediately and then broke the game open with a seven-run sixth inning that effectively ended any remaining suspense.
That sixth inning was the decisive sequence of the contest, and the DiamondIQ model reflected its outsized importance through the win-probability swings it generated. Rowdy Tellez delivered the biggest single blow of the game, a double off Steven Wilson that added 20.0% to Milwaukee's win probability. Carlos Santana followed with a walk, also off Wilson, worth an additional 15.6%, and Sal Frelick then doubled off Nick Martinez for another 17.5% swing. Those three plays alone accounted for more than 53 percentage points of win-probability movement within a single half-inning. Earlier in the game, a Willy Adames double play in the bottom of the third off Michael Wacha had briefly stalled Milwaukee's momentum, costing the Brewers 17.4% in win probability, but it proved to be a minor detour.
Among the individual standouts, Carlos Santana led all batters with a WPA of plus 26.0% and an RE24 of plus 2.3, while Sal Frelick posted plus 23.7% WPA and plus 1.9 RE24, and Tellez added plus 20.0% WPA and plus 1.4 RE24. On the pitching side, Hoby Milner was the most impactful arm by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, contributing plus 19.8% WPA, with Michael Wacha at plus 17.9% and Bryse Wilson at plus 15.9% rounding out the top three. San Diego got a brief measure of hope in the top of the seventh when Fernando Tatis Jr. drew a walk off Abner Uribe worth plus 12.0% WPA, but the Padres could not capitalize further, and Milwaukee closed out the ten-win result without an error on the night.